Future Geopolitical Landscape

1897: With control over 25% of the world's population through its various colonies, roughly 400 million people, spanning Canada, India, Burma, Nigeria, South Africa, Iraq, Australia, New Zealand, Ireland and many more, Britain stood tall as the world's single superpower. On June 22 1897, Queen Victoria, Britain and the rest of its empire celebrated this with the Diamond Jubilee. But the lesson to draw form Britain is that 'once a superpower not always a superpower'. After overexerting itself in the Boer War in 1902, despite victory, and through participation in World War I, Britain drained what was already a teetering economic situation. Although it remained politically powerful even up until the aftermath of the Second World War, it had to eventually cede its dominance to the new global superpower: the U.S.

Now fast forward a bit 1945: Post WWII agreements sees the Soviet Union also claim some political clout. But the threat of the spread of communism in the East soon precipitates the beginning of a 46 year Cold War between the Soviets and the U.S, resulting in a nuclear arms race, a space race and numerous proxy wars, and ultimately, a great sense of global unease, perhaps best exemplified in 1959, when the world held its breath over the Cuban Missile Crisis, where nuclear war seemed set to break out between the two superpowers. Fortunately it didn't, and with the eventual Soviet collapse in 1991, the U.S emerged on the global stage as the now sole superpower of the world. The global hegemon that sold the American Dream, pushed for free trade, encouraged globalization, spread its ideals and to some sold its soul for the niche economic interests of the elite oligarchs. In any case, it was all-powerful, politically, economically, militarily and culturally, and it strutted its stuff and did as it pleased. The Bush administration almost prided itself in ignoring popular international opinion and the stance of the United Nations and World Court. For who was going to challenge them? Unipolarity must have tasted sweet for almost the past two decades, but did the U.S play their hand badly? You bet they did.

2009: A sea change is occurring that has been so far unprecedented. China is emerging as a real economic power. China has grown 9% a year for almost thirty years, in the process lifting 400 million of its citizens out of poverty. But hang on...what's that coming over the hill from the south? India too is booming, granted not as fast as China (whose economy is three times its size), but its economy is still showing significant growth. Add into the mix other emerging economies in countries like Brazil and Russia, and we get to the stage where we should be considering what the future of geopolitics is going to look like? The U.S at the moment is suffering a huge economic hit from the financial meltdown. It also has a spiralling national debt ($2 trillion of which is owned by China - and don't mistake this for altruism either, this is a highly conscious decision to help prop up the American economy which is a huge market for Chinese goods). The U.S also has the health care issue to take care of, which is proving to be another huge drain on the national budget in addition to the hundreds of millions of dollars a year used to finance two Middle Eastern Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. So, we must ask ourselves, is this the end of the U.S? Are they to become the next Britain....ashes of the superpower legacy?

No, far from it. Remember, economic power is only one facet of being a superpower....and even then, the U.S economy is still by far the largest economy in the world. The combined $125 million spent yearly on the Iraq/Afghan wars is only a paltry 1% of GDP, and despite losing many manufacturing jobs, the U.S still holds a sizable global lead in both the Nanotechnology and Biotechnology industries - industries for the future. Not only this, but America still possesses the most formidable and powerful military force in the world, and China doesn't look set to catch up any time soon, with its defense budget currently only 10% of that of the Pentagon. Politically, the U.S still has a great deal of clout, although this has diminished over the years as the government has abused the concept of legitimacy, resulting in a growing sense of Anti-Americanism across the globe. But for all these problems, none of the emerging countries is even close to challenging the hegemonic power of the U.S. But this is now, what about further on down the road? Well that is surely dependent on how the U.S, with all its power, reacts to the continuing growth of such countries. Will it accommodate and share the pie, or will it try to impede and keep as much for itself as it can? This is why the foreign policy of the U.S will have a significant bearing on the future of our planet. For me, integration and collaboration should be the way forward, particularly in tackling issues such as climate change and nuclear proliferation.

One thing is for sure though....the U.S is going to have to learn that complacency can have no place in Washington like it did in the last two decades.

2030: World War III...or a more harmonious multipolar geopolitical landscape? The decisions that we make now will determine this....so it is worth a thought or two, don't you think?